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Situation

• Complexity, diversity, and pace of change will characterize the association environment through the early part of the 21^st century.
• Complexity in the sense of the convergence of scientific breakthroughs, new technologies, and globalization.
• Diversity in the changing age, ethnicity, and interests of members.
• Pace of change as it relates to the shortened period of time between creating something of value and its obsolemscence as exemplified in the five-year half-life of an engineer's knowledge.

Each of the above-mentioned components of our 21^st century reality could be explored in great detail. For the purposes of this article, however, I am going to focus on one particular area. That is the changing nature of association membership due to an aging workforce and anticipated retirements. The key to successful marketing in the future, will be the ability to align it with a continuum of an ever-changing audience, message, and medium.

Association membership is headed for a major change in make-up. Demographers have organized the American population mix into four segments. These are:

• The Matures, aged 59-80, total 52 million
• The Boomers, aged 42-59, total 73.2 million
• The Generation Xers, aged 22-42, total 70.1 million
• The Generation Nexters, aged 2-22, total 69.7 million.

Most of the Matures have retired and the Boomers are beginning the process. There are not enough Generation Xers to fill the combined retirements, over time, of the Boomers and the Matures, let alone support new jobs created by economic growth. Approximately 30% of the current American workforce is expected to retire over the next 10-15 years. By 2008, it is anticipated that the United States will have created 161 million jobs and only have available 154 million workers. That equals a 7 million-worker shortfall in the near-term. It is further forecasted that shortfall could equal 35 million over the next 25 years. More specific interpretations of this situation are reflected as follows:

• 52% of U.S. scientists and engineers are over the age of 50
• Average dental school faculty age is 60.3 years
• One in eight government workers is between the ages of 55 and 64
• Average age of a skilled machinist is 50
• Average age of a construction worker is 47

• 47% of current nursing staff is expected to leave over the next seven years
• 50% of manufacturing managers over the next five years
• 45% of the federal government senior executive service over the next four years
• 63% of the State of Iowa's public school administrators by 2004

• 100,000 new manufacturing engineers
• 550,000 new construction workers
• 195,000 college professors
• 330,000 bookkeepers and accountants
• 2 million elementary and secondary school teachers

Employers and professions that comprise association members will be working aggressively to attract and retain individuals to maintain their competitive advantage. They will do this by:

• Providing special project work opportunities for retired professionals
• Contracting work to global suppliers
• Recruiting talent from around the world to live and work in the United States
• Aggressively recruiting and advancing Generation Xers and Generation Nexters (when they are ready)
• Outsourcing to micro-businesses, independent contractors, and professional clusters
• Tapping non-traditional workforce constituencies

In a presentation to the Professional Convention Management Association earlier this year, I suggested that the key to an association's success lay in its future ability to demonstrate to the current and/or potential members that they will be significantly more successful because of what the association is able to do for them. In addition, I suggested that the motivation for association involvement for the older generation was:

• Networking
• Socializing
• Attainment of "new knowledge"

Further, the motivation for this new, more global, ethnically diverse, and younger member will be:

• Attainment of "new knowledge"
• Networking
• Socializing

Obviously, there is a difference in the priority of interests. Marketing messages for recruitment and retention of members will need to respond accordingly.

With such a wide range of current and potential members, associations will need to use multiple channels of delivery. Older members will prefer the traditional printed material that approaches a subject from an in-depth perspective. The younger members will have grown up with the internet and a news and information environment of 30-second sound bytes. Some members, because of their foreign ancestry, will not be as comfortable with the English language.

In order for associations to align their marketing with a continuum of change, time and attention should be given to:

• Forecasting the anticipated change in membership demographics due to retirements and replacements.
• Developing methodologies which allow members to define the message and the medium through which they'd prefer to receive it.
• Expanding ability to use and regularly update the association web site.
• Enhancing ability to tailor marketing messages to individual and special interest groups.
• Providing professional development opportunities for association marketing staff in light of changing member demographics.

He may be reached at (616) 429-2601 or info@creatingthefuture.com.

2907 Division Street, Suite 108
St. Joseph, MI 49085
Phone: (269) 982-1830
Fax: (269) 982-1541
Email barlow@qtm.net